# Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

PDF, ePUB

- eBook:Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks
- Author:Will Kurt
- Edition:-
- Categories:
- Data:July 9, 2019
- ISBN:1593279566
- ISBN-13:9781593279561
- Language:English
- Pages:256 pages
- Format:PDF, ePUB

**Book Description**

**Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.**

Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it.

*Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way*will change that.

This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.

By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:

- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief

- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for

- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions

- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data

- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to

*Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way*to get the most value from your data.

**Content**

Chapter 1: Bayesian Thinking and Everyday Reasoning

Chapter 2: Measuring Uncertainty

Chapter 3: The Logic of Uncertainty

Chapter 4: Creating a Binomial Probability Distribution

Chapter 5: The Beta Distribution

PART II: BAYESIAN PROBABILITY AND PRIOR PROBABILITIES

Chapter 6: Conditional Probability

Chapter 7: Bayes’ Theorem with LEGO

Chapter 8: The Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior of Bayes’ Theorem

Chapter 9: Bayesian Priors and Working with Probability Distributions

PART III: PARAMETER ESTIMATION

Chapter 10: Introduction to Averaging and Parameter Estimation

Chapter 11: Measuring the Spread of Our Data

Chapter 12: The Normal Distribution

Chapter 13: Tools of Parameter Estimation: The PDF, CDF, and Quantile Function

Chapter 14: Parameter Estimation with Prior Probabilities

PART IV: HYPOTHESIS TESTING: THE HEART OF STATISTICS

Chapter 15: From Parameter Estimation to Hypothesis Testing: Building a Bayesian A/B Test

Chapter 16: Introduction to the Bayes Factor and Posterior Odds: The Competition of Ideas

Chapter 17: Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight Zone

Chapter 18: When Data Doesn’t Convince You

Chapter 19: From Hypothesis Testing to Parameter Estimation

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